Extinction risk modeling has been a fundamental tool for understanding factors and dynamics determining species’ probability of persistence. However a proper transposition of such a tool in global conservation planning has been lacking for many years. We filled this gap by developing a new metric called “Extinction risk Reduction Opportunity” (Di Marco et al. 2012) that detect threatened mammal species with a biological potential for recovery. We discovered that most valuable areas for an effective minimization of global mammal extinction risk are currently unprotected (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1 Priority areas for global mammal extinction risk reduction, with a few example species.
We are now investigating past patterns of species’ decline in order to have a wider temporal view of the mechanisms affecting species’ extinction risk. Through a retrospective definition of species’ threat status we expect to obtain a more complete understanding of the factors influencing species’ threat status deteriorations.
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